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🚨 Trouble Ahead? 10 California Housing Markets Flash Early Warning Signs As a real estate professional who’s been tracking housing cycles for decades, I’ve learned to pay attention when the numbers start telling a different story than the headlines. That’s exactly what’s happening right now in several California cities. While the statewide media continues to focus on modest price gains and average sales data, certain local markets are showing undeniable signs of stress — the kind of stress that often comes before major price corrections. And the most alarming part? It’s happening in slow motion. 📉 A Market Shift That’s Easy to Miss At a glance, California’s real estate market doesn’t seem too alarming. The California Association of Realtors is still projecting price growth for 2025 — a 4.6% increase in the statewide median, bringing it to just under $1M. That sounds reassuring… until you dig deeper. Behind those averages are cities where inventory has doubled, prices are falling month-over-month, and distressed sales are quietly picking up steam. These aren’t isolated anomalies — they’re part of a broader pattern that smart homeowners and investors should be paying close attention to. We’ve identified 10 California markets where the fundamentals are breaking down in a way that’s eerily similar to the early signs of the last housing crisis. The difference this time? The shift is happening gradually — which means there’s time to get ahead of it, if you act early. 🔟 The 10 California Cities Showing Market Strain Here’s a breakdown of what we’re seeing: 1. Stockton Inventory is up over 70% year-over-year. Prices have already dropped more than 5%, and average days on market is now over 75 — double what it was a year ago. We’re also tracking a noticeable increase in foreclosure filings and short sale inquiries. 2. Bakersfield According to ATTOM, Bakersfield had one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country this spring. One filing for every 1,990 homes. That’s not just a warning sign — it’s a flashing red light. Properties that sold for $350K in 2022 are now struggling to sell at $280K. 3. Riverside A hot spot during the pandemic, Riverside attracted many buyers priced out of coastal markets. But many of those buyers stretched themselves thin. With rates over 6.5%, defaults are ticking up and new construction has slowed drastically. 4. Los Angeles County (Palmdale, Lancaster, etc.) Even in historically strong markets like L.A., listings are flooding the market. In some areas, prices have dropped $50K–$80K in just a few months. Layoffs in tech, media, and finance are undermining the incomes that once supported these price points. 5. Orange County Once seen as bulletproof, this affluent market has seen inventory nearly double in the last six months. Luxury homes that sparked bidding wars in 2021 are now sitting for months, with multiple price reductions. The buyer pool at the high end is pulling back — fast. 6. San Diego County With a median price still hovering above $900,000, San Diego is becoming unaffordable for its own workforce. Inventory is rising, sellers are slashing prices, and buyers are hesitating as incomes and home values drift further apart. 7. Modesto Like other Central Valley markets, Modesto is feeling the effects of limited economic diversity. Prices that surged during the boom now look increasingly out of sync with local wages, and homes are sitting unsold even after deep cuts. 8. Fresno Fresno’s pandemic-era price boom was driven by out-of-area buyers. Now that demand has cooled, the market is reverting — and quickly. Homes that once offered “affordable alternatives” are now priced beyond what the local economy can support. 9. Vallejo As a secondary Bay Area market, Vallejo benefited from the spillover demand during the boom. But layoffs in tech and rising commute costs are reversing that trend. Inventory is climbing, and so are signs of distress. 10. Antioch Another Bay Area suburb, Antioch is facing a perfect storm: long commutes, rising costs, and falling buyer demand. Median prices remain high, but sellers are beginning to undercut one another to move properties. 🧭 What It Means for Homeowners and Investors Let’s be clear — this is not a doomsday prediction. But it is a very real shift that could catch homeowners and investors off guard if they’re not watching the signs. If you own property in one of these cities — especially if you purchased in 2021 or 2022 — now is the time to assess your position. Inventory is rising. Buyer demand is softening. And price corrections are already underway in some ZIP codes. Waiting too long to respond could mean getting caught in a wave of steep price reductions as more sellers realize what’s happening. We’re not at crisis levels yet, but the trend is forming — and the smart money always moves early. 🧠 Advice for Sellers and Investors ➡️ If you’re thinking of selling, get ahead of the curve. Waiting could mean competing with more inventory and more desperate sellers. ➡️ If you’re buying, patience is your friend. These markets are correcting, and rushing to “buy before prices rise” is no longer a sound strategy. ➡️ If you’re investing, avoid assumptions about appreciation. Focus on fundamentals — job growth, income support, and affordability. 📞 Ready to Talk Strategy? If you’re unsure what this market shift means for your property or portfolio, let’s talk. I help sellers and investors navigate uncertainty with data-backed guidance and practical solutions — not hype. 📲 Call or text me at 888-980-9820📧 Email: joe.iuliucci@kw.com🌐 Visit: KWDefaultSolutions.comBacked by Keller Williams Realty | Powered by KW Default Solutions Sources: California Association of Realtors, ATTOM, MLS reports, foreclosure filings, regional market data.

Trouble is Brewing in the California Real Estate World

&nbsp;Market Watch: Number of U.S. Housing Markets Seeing Home Price Declines Jumps to 110A growing number of metro housing markets across the country are now experiencing falling home prices year-over-year, signaling a broader regional slowdown in appreciation trends. According to data released this week via the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), 110 of the nation’s 300 largest metro areas posted annual price declines between June 2024 and June 2025—a significant jump from just 31 markets reporting declines back in January. This trend has been unfolding steadily over the past six months: *January 2025: 31 markets with falling YoY prices *February: 42 markets *March: 60 markets *April: 80 markets *May: 96 markets *June**: 110 markets (36% of the top 300 metros) (Source: Zillow Home Value Index via reporting by Lance Lambert, *ResiClub*, July 2025) Shifting Momentum Toward Buyers This softening is largely driven by affordability constraints, elevated mortgage rates, and a shift in supply-demand dynamics. While many markets in the **Northeast and Midwest** are still holding up—thanks to tight inventory well below pre-2019 levels—others, particularly in **Arizona, Texas, Florida, Colorado, and Louisiana**, are facing modest price corrections as listings rise. Some of the most notable year-over-year home price declines are happening in major Sun Belt metros, including: *Austin, TX: -5.8% *Tampa, FL: -5.7% *Miami, FL: -3.8% *Dallas, TX: -3.7% *Orlando, FL: -3.7% *Phoenix, AZ : -3.5% *San Francisco, CA: -3.4% *San Antonio, T: -3.3% *Atlanta, GA: -2.9% *Denver, CO: -2.7% *San Diego, CA: -2.4% (Full list: *ZHVI, June 2025*) What’s Causing the Downshift? Many of these softening markets saw rapid appreciation during the pandemic-era housing boom, where prices often far outpaced local wage growth. Now, with pandemic migration slowing and interest rates elevated, those inflated values are recalibrating. Compounding the issue is a surge in **new construction inventory** in Sun Belt regions, where builders are more willing to offer price cuts and incentives—cooling the resale market in the process. Permits &amp; Supply Indicators Data from July also shows a continued pullback in single-family housing permits, suggesting future supply will be more restrained. Meanwhile, multifamily permits appear to have stabilized after a sharp decline in 2023–2024. While permitting slowed, multifamily completions reached their highest level since 1974 as pandemic-financed projects wrapped up. That pipeline is now tapering off. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau Housing Starts &amp; Permits Report, July 2025) What Comes Next? Experts at ResiClub anticipate the number of metro markets with falling prices could reach 150 out of 300 by late 2025 if current trends persist. Still, it’s important to note that 190 metro areas are still seeing positive year-over-year appreciation, showing just how localized housing performance has become. Markets with stronger local economies and tighter supply—especially those less affected by investor overreach or rapid in-migration—are generally more insulated from the broader slowdown. Sources: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), June 2025 ResiClub reporting by Lance Lambert, July 2025 U.S. Census Bureau, New Residential Construction Report, July 2025 Need Expert Guidance in a Shifting Market? If you’re an investor, asset manager, or real estate professional looking to make sense of today’s complex housing environment, KW Default Solutions** is your trusted resource. Backed by the experience of thousands of transactions and deep market knowledge across California and Nevada, our team provides expert-level insight into foreclosure trends, REO strategies, and acquisition opportunities in distressed markets. Visit Our Community - [https://communities.kw.com/community/kw-default-solutions/](https://communities.kw.com/community/kw-default-solutions/) Learn more at KWDefaultSolutions.com [https://www.kwdefaultsolutions.com](https://www.kwdefaultsolutions.com/) or call 888-980-9820 to speak with our team today.

Market Watch: Number of U.S. Housing Markets Seeing Home Price Declines Jumps to 110

📝&nbsp; Foreclosure Activity Picks Up in First Half of 2025 – Here's What You Need to Know Foreclosure activity is on the rise again in 2025.According to the latest Mid-Year 2025 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report from ATTOM, foreclosure filings—including default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions—hit 187,659 properties in just the first six months of this year. That’s a 5.8% increase from this time last year and a sign that financial strain is creeping back into the market.Key Highlights: Foreclosure starts are up 7% year-over-year, with Texas, Florida, and California leading the nation. Bank repossessions (REOs) totaled 21,007, a 12% jump from 2024. The average time to foreclose dropped again, now down to 645 days—the third straight quarter of decline. Some of the highest foreclosure rates in the country were found in:Illinois, Delaware, and Nevada (each over 0.21% of housing units in foreclosure) Lakeland, FL, Columbia, SC, and Las Vegas, NV were among the metro areas with the most filings per housing unit. States like Alaska, Rhode Island, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado saw the largest percentage increases in activity compared to last year.What does this mean for you?Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or real estate professional, this trend shows there are growing opportunities—and risks—in today’s market. If you’re not tracking foreclosure activity and default signals, you may miss out on valuable opportunities or get caught off guard.For buyers and investors, now is the time to:Stay informed about foreclosure trends Monitor high-activity markets like Nevada, Florida, and Illinois Understand the legal and transactional process of buying distressed assets For homeowners in hardship, know that options do exist before foreclosure becomes unavoidable. Our team can help navigate solutions like short sales, forbearance, and off-market sales to institutional buyers.📊 Source: ATTOM Mid-Year 2025 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report🔍 Want to dig deeper into what's happening in your market? Visit KWDefaultSolutions.com or call us at 888-980-9820 for expert guidance on foreclosure trends, loss mitigation options, and institutional property solutions.

Foreclosure Activity Picks Up in First Half of 2025 – Here's What You Need to Know

The U.S. housing market just took its biggest hit in new home sales since 2022 — dropping 13.7% in a single month. Demand has stalled out, and we're now looking at 57,000 unsold new homes sitting on the market. That’s the highest inventory level since October 2007 — right before the last crash.If you're a buyer, seller, or investor trying to make sense of today’s real estate market, the data paints a picture that most people aren’t seeing — yet. We pulled numbers from the Commerce Department, U.S. Census Bureau, Freddie Mac, major builder earnings, and multiple research sources. Together, they show a market under serious pressure.In May 2025, new home sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 units. That’s a long fall from the pandemic highs of over a million. We’ve lost more than half of our demand — and the trend is still heading down. More concerning, there’s now 9.8 months of new home inventory — nearly double what’s considered healthy.And it’s not just about inventory. Affordability is getting crushed.As of June 26, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.77%. That’s almost triple what we saw during the 2021 low. For buyers, that means the monthly mortgage payment on a $400,000 home today is about $1,100 higher than it would’ve been just a few years ago. That’s over $13,000 more a year — and it’s pricing out massive swaths of the market.Big builders are feeling it too. D.R. Horton — the country’s largest builder — missed earnings expectations, lowered guidance, and said they expect to deliver fewer homes in 2025 than previously forecast. Their stock fell nearly 8% in one day, and the ripple effect hit Lennar and PulteGroup as well.Builders are now throwing massive incentives on the table to move inventory. Lennar is offering $47,000 per house nationally, and even more in key markets — $51K in Texas, $81K in Florida. That’s over 10% off just to make the sale.Housing starts and building permits are falling sharply too. Multifamily starts dropped 29.7% in a single month, and permits have declined for two straight months. The pipeline for future inventory is drying up — and builders are pulling back.Regionally, the pain is being felt most in places that boomed during the pandemic.Tampa saw prices drop 4.5% year-over-year, and 25% in the downtown core. Inventory is sitting longer, and sellers are slashing prices to compete. Austin reported a 22.5% drop in new home sales with days on market now over 11 weeks. Denver’s inventory exploded nearly 65% year-over-year, with home prices falling 4.1% annually — and for 15 straight months. Even worse, net household growth in Denver has turned negative. Phoenix now ranks second-worst in the nation, with sales down 10.1% and nearly 60% of homes selling below asking. Builder sentiment is tanking too. NAHB data shows builder confidence at a 2.5-year low, and 37% of builders are now cutting prices — the highest level since 2022.Now, here’s what separates this market from 2008: lending standards are still solid. According to the St. Louis Fed, the average credit score for new borrowers is 772. Foreclosures are still historically low. This isn’t a subprime crash — it’s an affordability freeze.Roughly 83% of homeowners are locked into mortgage rates below 6%, and they’re not eager to sell. That “rate lock-in” effect is choking resale inventory. At the same time, construction costs are through the roof. According to NAHB, they now make up 64.4% of a home’s price — the highest ever recorded. Labor shortages, rising wages, and tightening credit are making it even harder to bring affordable housing to market.Banks are pulling back too. The Fed’s latest loan officer survey shows tighter credit standards across the board. Combine that with doubled payments and sticky prices, and you’ve got a housing market that just doesn’t work for most Americans.Yes, Freddie Mac still estimates a housing shortage of 3.7 million units. That long-term gap will likely create serious pent-up demand — but that demand is frozen until something gives: either rates fall, prices drop, or incomes surge. None of those seem imminent.Consumer sentiment reflects the standoff. Only 20% of buyers think it’s a good time to purchase. And 78% are waiting for rates to drop below 5.5%. Until that happens, very little will move.If you’re a homeowner with a sub-6% mortgage, you’re sitting on a valuable asset — but it can feel like a golden cage. Want to sell or move up? You're likely facing a mortgage that’s thousands more per year. So you stay put.Markets like Denver, Tampa, Austin, and Phoenix may offer windows of opportunity for well-capitalized investors or cash buyers. But calling the bottom takes patience. Real estate cycles tend to play out over 7 to 10 years — and we’re only about three years into this one.What we’re seeing now is a full-scale market reset. It’s not a temporary correction — it’s a structural shift. We’re colliding normalized interest rates with historically high home prices. Until one of those changes, expect this dysfunction to persist.Whether you're buying, selling, investing, or advising clients, you need to operate with real data and long-term perspective — not wishful thinking.At KW Default Solutions, we specialize in helping agents, investors, and institutions navigate complex markets like this. If you need strategic insight or execution support, we’re here to help.

The U.S. housing market just took its biggest hit in new home sales since 2022

group of businessmen and investors discuss investing in real estate and jointly plan investments in construction projects of condominiums and apartments for sale and rent. investment advisory concept

<h2>Understanding the Role of a Property Management Company</h2>Choosing the right property management company is crucial for maximizing the return on your rental investments. Property managers handle day-to-day operations, tenant interactions, and maintenance issues, ensuring your rental business runs smoothly. A competent company can enhance tenant satisfaction and retention, while a poor choice could lead to financial losses and tenant dissatisfaction.<figure id="figure-o0qmysia13mczi9xpn"><img id="o0qmysia13mczi9xpn" src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/32O22gXII3Sxnq1JnQgakjQsU7NR4DX7DXOyRdJrr0sdgci1unYvnDdnhYuifKXf.jpeg" alt="property management" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/32O22gXII3Sxnq1JnQgakjQsU7NR4DX7DXOyRdJrr0sdgci1unYvnDdnhYuifKXf.jpeg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;"></figure><h3>Identifying Your Needs</h3>Before selecting a property management company, it’s essential to identify your specific needs. Consider the number of properties you own, their locations, and the level of involvement you wish to maintain. Understanding your priorities will help you find a company that aligns with your business goals.<h3>Researching Potential Companies</h3>Once you've identified your needs, start researching potential property management companies. Look for firms with a strong reputation in the industry and positive reviews from other property owners. Online platforms and local real estate associations can be valuable resources in finding reputable companies.<figure id="figure-j72c51moomczia14x"><img id="j72c51moomczia14x" src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/37WCVFR7ZNS4zQy6G0OF294uNaq7fAmEVTbmJdg2hpQbtUReTFRFiO50jQVDvk5V.jpeg" alt="real estate research" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/37WCVFR7ZNS4zQy6G0OF294uNaq7fAmEVTbmJdg2hpQbtUReTFRFiO50jQVDvk5V.jpeg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;"></figure><h2>Evaluating Services Offered</h2>Different property management companies offer various services. It's important to evaluate what each company provides and how it matches your requirements. Common services include:<ul><li>Tenant screening and selection</li><li>Rent collection and financial reporting</li><li>Property maintenance and repairs</li><li>Marketing and leasing</li><li>Legal compliance and evictions</li></ul>Ensure the company you choose offers a comprehensive package that covers all aspects of property management relevant to your needs.<h3>Assessing Financial Considerations</h3>Cost is a significant factor when choosing a property management company. Companies typically charge a percentage of the monthly rental income. Be wary of companies that offer significantly lower rates than others, as this could be a red flag for subpar service. It’s important to understand the fee structure and any additional costs for extra services.<h2>Interviewing Prospective Companies</h2>Conduct interviews with potential property management companies to gauge their expertise and approach. Ask about their experience, the types of properties they manage, and their strategies for handling common challenges. Pay attention to their communication style and responsiveness, as these are crucial for effective collaboration.<figure id="figure-3rs940jn3smczia649"><img id="3rs940jn3smczia649" src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/1xkrJjnj3oaXnklPV9SCA6tPvFbSu7JbepKjZ1LuXm4CHZuy8xak50D3s5XpHgOH.jpeg" alt="business meeting" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/1xkrJjnj3oaXnklPV9SCA6tPvFbSu7JbepKjZ1LuXm4CHZuy8xak50D3s5XpHgOH.jpeg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;"></figure><h3>Checking References and Reviews</h3>Before making a final decision, check references and reviews from current or past clients. This can provide insights into the company’s performance, reliability, and ability to handle issues effectively. Testimonials from other property owners can highlight strengths and potential areas of concern.<h3>Making Your Decision</h3>After thorough research and evaluation, select a property management company that meets your criteria and instills confidence in their ability to manage your properties effectively. Remember that engaging with the right company can lead to enhanced property value, tenant satisfaction, and overall business success.By following these guidelines, you can make an informed decision and choose a property management company that aligns with your investment goals, ensuring long-term success in the rental market.

Choosing the Right Property Management Company for Your Rentals

Closeup image of judge gavel, wooden house and word PROBATE.

<h2>What is a Probate Sale?</h2>A probate sale occurs when a property is sold as part of the legal process of settling the estate of a deceased person. This type of sale typically happens when the deceased did not leave a will or when the will does not specify how the property should be distributed. During probate, the court oversees the sale to ensure all legal requirements are met and that the property is sold for a fair market value.Probate sales can be an attractive option for buyers looking for a good deal, as these properties are often priced below market value. However, the process can be more complex than a standard real estate transaction, requiring patience and understanding of the legal procedures involved.<figure id="figure-odf3vvi48jmczi70tf"><img id="odf3vvi48jmczi70tf" src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/1c02sOxgqIYx2uEGiACck4PC1AKAkZwc18zfXUer7xZurRV7V7qOJ1rEQESeiJWW.jpeg" alt="probate sale process" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/1c02sOxgqIYx2uEGiACck4PC1AKAkZwc18zfXUer7xZurRV7V7qOJ1rEQESeiJWW.jpeg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;"></figure><h2>The Probate Sale Process</h2><h3>Initial Steps</h3>The probate sale process begins with the appointment of an executor or administrator by the court. This individual is responsible for managing the estate and facilitating the sale of any real property. Before a property can be listed for sale, it must be appraised to determine its current market value. This appraisal helps set a baseline for offers and ensures that the estate receives a fair price.Once the property has been appraised, it is listed for sale on the open market. Interested buyers can view and make offers on the property, but it's important to note that all offers must be approved by the court.<h3>Court Confirmation</h3>After an offer is accepted by the executor, it must still go through a court confirmation process. This step is crucial to verify that the property is being sold under fair conditions. During a court hearing, other interested buyers may have the opportunity to bid on the property. The highest bid at the hearing is typically accepted, provided it meets or exceeds a specified percentage above the initial offer.<figure id="figure-b344gvxt6qmczi7422"><img id="b344gvxt6qmczi7422" src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/23bJP7IydVFNlkW5jFrpKgMCrxXGWWKkU9Hn56GcCVLaqBINpILRMWFQ0W7HLnZC.jpeg" alt="court confirmation" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/23bJP7IydVFNlkW5jFrpKgMCrxXGWWKkU9Hn56GcCVLaqBINpILRMWFQ0W7HLnZC.jpeg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;"></figure><h2>Benefits and Challenges for Buyers</h2><h3>Advantages</h3>For buyers, probate sales can present an opportunity to purchase properties at a reduced price. Since these properties are often sold "as-is," buyers may find themselves getting more house for their money compared to traditional sales. Additionally, there is less competition in probate sales, as many buyers are unfamiliar with or hesitant about the process.<h3>Potential Challenges</h3>However, buying a probate property also comes with its challenges. The process can be lengthy and involves more legal oversight than standard transactions. Buyers must be prepared for possible delays and additional paperwork. Moreover, because probate properties are sold "as-is," buyers should be vigilant about conducting thorough inspections before finalizing any purchase.<figure id="figure-d96gpsvbvfmczi773d"><img id="d96gpsvbvfmczi773d" src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/25hkMNGZ9OVBduaH51Jn8r06M610aXwVBkf8lHcBbM5lmTnXiczV1lULjii7r255.jpeg" alt="property inspection" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/getty/25hkMNGZ9OVBduaH51Jn8r06M610aXwVBkf8lHcBbM5lmTnXiczV1lULjii7r255.jpeg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;"></figure><h2>Navigating Probate Sales as a Seller</h2>Selling a property through probate requires careful adherence to legal protocols. Executors need to work closely with a real estate agent who is experienced in handling probate sales. This ensures that all necessary paperwork is completed correctly and that the property is marketed effectively to potential buyers.Executors must also be prepared to attend court hearings and manage any competing bids from interested parties. While this can be time-consuming, it is essential to maximize the value of the estate for beneficiaries.<h3>Conclusion</h3>Understanding the probate sale process is crucial for both buyers and sellers. While it offers unique opportunities, it also demands a thorough comprehension of legal procedures and patience throughout the transaction. By being well-informed and working with experienced professionals, both parties can navigate probate sales successfully, ensuring fair outcomes and potentially lucrative opportunities.

Blog

Trouble is Brewing in the California Real Estate World

Market Watch: Number of U.S. Housing Markets Seeing Home ...

Foreclosure Activity Picks Up in First Half of 2025 – Her...

The U.S. housing market just took its biggest hit in new ...

Choosing the Right Property Management Company for Your R...

Understanding Probate Sales: A Guide for Buyers and Sellers